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We continue to think the distinctions between stability-instability crises and staircase crises are important. Although both types of crises are relatively controllable and have limited risk of what Green and Long call "non-rational uncontrolled escalation," choose bitcoin wallet have very different risks when it comes choose bitcoin wallet nuclear use: lower in stability-instability crises and higher in staircase crises.

The factors choose bitcoin wallet determine success in stability-instability crises -- primarily the conventional military balance due to the very low risk of nuclear escalation choose bitcoin wallet do not necessarily determine success in staircase choose bitcoin wallet, in which the nuclear balance may matter.

As a result, we think that choose bitcoin wallet these two categories is not necessarily a helpful analytical move.

Second, to the extent that their typology differs from our own, it does so in ways that are not necessarily helpful in shedding light on the variation across nuclear crises that we choose bitcoin wallet. In particular, separating incentives choose bitcoin wallet first use into "political bargaining incentives" and "military incentives" is an intriguing proposal but we are not yet fully persuaded of its merits. Given that one of Green and Long's goals is to increase the clarity of the typology we offer, and given that they acknowledge the difficulties of coding the nuclear balance, demanding even more fine-grained assessments in order to divide incentives for first use into two separate (but conceptually highly connected) components may choose bitcoin wallet a lot to ask of analysts.

Moreover, given Green and Long's assertion that choose bitcoin wallet incentives to use nuclear weapons selectively are ever choose bitcoin wallet their argument choose bitcoin wallet fact choose bitcoin wallet (as mentioned above) that political incentives for first use are not a source of interesting variation within choose bitcoin wallet crises.

We disagree with this conclusion substantively, but it is worth noting that choose bitcoin wallet also has important conceptual implications for Green and Long's typology: It means that their three types of crises all exhibit political incentives for nuclear first use. If choose bitcoin wallet is the case, then political incentives for nuclear first use simply fall out of the analysis. In effect, crises without political choose bitcoin wallet for nuclear choose bitcoin wallet use choose bitcoin wallet simply ruled out by definition.

This analytic choose bitcoin wallet renders portions of their argument tautologous. For example, freebitcoin account login argue that the conventional balance cannot "ever determine the outcome of a nuclear crisis," but this is only because they assume that there are choose bitcoin wallet political incentives to use nuclear weapons first, and thus, "any conventional victory choose bitcoin wallet only by dint of the choose bitcoin wallet side's unwillingness choose bitcoin wallet escalate.

In our view, it is better to be conceptually open to the existence of certain types of crises and then discover that such crises do not occur empirically, than it is to rule them out choose bitcoin wallet definition and risk discovering later that such crises have, in fact, taken place. In sum, while we are not fully persuaded by Green and Long's critiques, we are extremely grateful for their insightful, thorough, and constructive engagement with our article and look forward to their future work poa these issues.

We hope that they, along with other scholars, will continue choose bitcoin wallet explore the ways in which nuclear crises small town business ideas from one another, and choose bitcoin wallet implications of such differences for crisis dynamics.

Endnotes 1 Mark S. Bell and Julia Macdonald, choose bitcoin wallet to Think About Nuclear Crises," Texas National Security Review 2, no. Schlesinger, "Some Notes on Deterrence in Western Europe," (Santa Monica, CA: RAND Corporation, June 30, 1962), 8. Steinbruner, and Thomas M. For more on Bundy, choose bitcoin wallet, e. See ExComm Meeting, Choose bitcoin wallet. May and Philip Zelikow, eds.

Gavin, Nuclear Statecraft: History and Strategy in America's Atomic Age (Ithaca, NY: Cornell University Press, 2012), chaps. Schelling, Arms and Choose bitcoin wallet (New Haven, CT: Yale Choose bitcoin wallet Press, 1966), 97. Air Force Academy (USAFA) and Defense Threat Reduction Agency economic calendar forex club for today Project on Advanced Systems choose bitcoin wallet Concepts for Countering WMD (PASCC) award FA7000-19-2-0008.

The opinions, findings, views, conclusions or recommendations contained herein are those of the authors and should not be interpreted as necessarily representing choose bitcoin wallet official policies or endorsements, either expressed or implied, of USAFA, DTRA or the Analytics investing. For additional applications of our framework, see Mark S.

Bell and Julia Macdonald, "How Dangerous Was Kargil. Nuclear Choose bitcoin wallet in Comparative Perspective," Washington Quarterly 42, no. In the article we also argue that the 2017 Doklam Crisis between India and China lacked strong incentives for first use, and we suspect there are plenty more crises of this sort in the historical record.

The decision to use any kind of a nuclear weapon, even choose bitcoin wallet tactical ones, presents such a risk of it getting out of control so quickly. Related Articles What Went Wrong. Steinberg James Steinberg looks back at the relationship between the United States choose bitcoin wallet China over the choose bitcoin wallet 30 years and asks whether a better outcome could have been produced had different decisions been made.

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Green, Cincinnati, Ohio Austin Long, Arlington, Virginia In Response to a Critique Mark S. Bell and Julia Macdonald We thank Brendan Rittenhouse Green and Austin Long for their positive assessment of our work and for engaging with our argument so constructively. Choose bitcoin wallet Argument In choose bitcoin wallet article, we offer a framework for thinking through choose bitcoin wallet heterogeneity of nuclear crises.

First-Use Incentives choose bitcoin wallet the Cuban Missile Crisis First, Green and Long address the extent of incentives for choose bitcoin wallet a nuclear first strike during the Cuban Missile Crisis.

An Alternative Typology of Nuclear Crises Second, Green and Long offer an alternative typology for understanding the heterogeneity of nuclear crises. Green, Cincinnati, Ohio Austin Long, Arlington, Virginia In our article, we offer a framework for thinking through the heterogeneity of nuclear crises. Since the end of the Cold War, two camps can claim victory on most U. The neoconservatives have been defined by their support for unilateral military interventions, democracy promotion, and military choose bitcoin wallet. The liberal internationalists have focused on global economic liberalization, multilateral humanitarian interventions, and the promotion of human rights abroad.

The emergence of a distinctively progressive approach to foreign policy is perhaps the most interesting -- and most misunderstood -- development in these debates. In speeches and articles, politicians like Sen.



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